Frame the resolution
Make the deadline, outcome criteria, and relevant context explicit before analysis begins.
Jataware forecasting workspace
Turn an uncertain question into an auditable probability.
jforecast researches the live evidence, recruits independent analytical perspectives, challenges the emerging consensus, and produces a calibrated forecast with the reasoning trail attached.
question
Will the target event occur by the resolution date?
final forecast
68%
Evidence-weighted estimate with sources, scenarios, and explicit failure modes.
Method
A forecast is a process, not a guess.
Each run preserves the question as asked, the information cutoff, the evidence gathered, and the intermediate judgments that shaped the final number.
Research the evidence
Search current sources, preserve citations, and separate what is known from what is merely plausible.
Build an independent panel
Multiple specialist perspectives estimate the outcome before their judgments are pooled.
Stress-test and calibrate
Counterarguments, backcasts, and learned calibration turn the raw panel estimate into the shipped forecast.
Output
The number comes with its receipts.
- Calibrated probabilityA decision-ready estimate, not a verbal hedge.
- Source trailThe evidence used in the run, preserved with links and context.
- Scenario analysisWhat the world looks like if the event happens—and if it does not.
- Replayable runResearch events, panel judgments, and the generated dossier stay attached.
Private workspace